Shacks’ take 02/03/12 – Super Bowl XLIV Prediction

New England -3 vs. New York Giants

 

Where to start with this one?  Tom vs. Eli, Boston vs. New York, Belichick vs. Coughlin, the WR's vs. the TE's, not to mention the revenge factor vs. the emphatic confirmation of greatness.  This game has so many storylines it's hard to know where to start and what to write about.  But this is about who's winning the big game and how I determine where my money goes. 

It's funny that the betting public, you and me,  like the Pats while most of the 'experts' like the G-Men.  

The bettors determine the line.  Vegas wants a 5o/50 split of the money between the two teams, the 3 point spread shows that Vegas thinks if the line were even, more of the money would go on New England causing them to lose millions if New England wins. Vegas just wants their 10% off the vig, so to get more bettors on New York they give you 3 points to take them.  Therefore the people must like the Pats.

On the other hand, ESPN, FOX, Profootballweekly and CBS experts all favour the Giants.  On ESPN they had almost every staffer make a pick and they favoured the Giants 35 – 28.  In fact, if you factored in their game score predictions the new total against the spread is 37 – 14 with 12 pushes.  CBS was 5 – 0.  Only Sports Illustrated writers favoured the Pats. It appears if the experts were making the spread, it would be the G-Men laying at least the 3 points.

That's about a 6 point swing between the public and the publications, how do you explain that?  A team's fan popularity is one of the reasons lines push out of whack. Certain teams have such large fan bases they receive more bets putting the line in their favour.  Teams like Dallas and Pittsburgh have such huge followings that when they play a team like St. Louis, the bookmakers have to make the line slightly in favour of St Louis to get more of the money onto the Rams side of the bet.

But this is New York against New England, not Seattle.  There may be more Pats fans than Giant fans but not 6 points worth so what's causing this shift?  It appears the experts are betting the tangible evidence, the public is betting the intangibles.  

When you look at the match-ups alone, it's hard not to like the Giants.  At almost every position group the Giants seem to have as good or better players.  This gap is most significant on the defensive side of the ball where the G-Men have really played well in recent weeks— their ability to get to the quarterback, many see as the difference in the game.    

Not long ago, Brady and Belichick would have been seen as huge advantages for the Pats but Spygate took some of the luster off Belichick's star and Brady's recent struggles in big games, coupled with Eli and Tom Coughlin's recent big game performances, has most writers calling what used to be the Pats biggest advantage in these games a wash.  In reality the only position group you can give New England the advantage at is TE and possibly kicker. On the other hand, defensive line, linebacker, secondary, WR's, RB's are all groups where the G-Men have an edge. 

This explains why the writers and experts are picking New York in significant numbers.  All the measureable stats, the things you see with your eyes, favour the Giants.  So how do we explain the public's preference for the Pats?  It's the immeasurables. 

The masses still believe in Brady.  They still believe in Belichick.  In order for New England to win this game, Belichick has to out coach Coughlin and Brady has to outplay Manning.  I can't see any circumstance where Brady gets outplayed by Manning or Belichick can't find a few edges for his charges in which New England wins. 

Although Manning is a huge part of what New York does, if he has an average game, New York's defense could still carry them to victory.  Do you trust New England's defense to overcome an average game from Tom Terrific? No chance.  If New England wins it's likely Tom Brady is MVP.  New York?  Could be Manning, could be Bradshaw, could be one of their WR's or one their outstanding D-linemen.

So the question I have to ask before I lay my money down is what do I believe?  Do I believe in experts and the match-ups or do I believe in the masses, that despite the evidence, somehow Brady and Belichick will find a way. 

The last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl, my hatred of the hoodie and Tom Terrific was strong.   There's no way I would have bet on the pretty boy and the jerk, but now?  For some reason they've grown on me.  Despite knowing the match-ups favour the G-Men, I think Tom and Bill find a way and I think Eli finally has a so-so day when it matters, throwing at least two picks. My Prediction:

Pats 27 – G-Men 20