Canuck fans should be glad other GM’s aren’t paying attention

Just like a gambler, a good NHL GM knows when to hold ‘em, when to fold ‘em, he knows when to walk away and he knows when to run.

Seeing the Leafs sign Mikael Grabovski for $5.5mil/year and Edmonton sign Ales Hemsky for $5mil/year sure has to make you happy to be a Canuck fan.

Any Canuck fan that might doubt Mike Gillis needs to look only as far as the recent contracts by Edmonton and Toronto to realize the great work he’s done convincing his key assets to sign well below market value.

In fact, if you look at the contracts of the players on the Canucks, the only ones that could be considered over paid are the ones he traded for from other teams (Booth and Ballard, thanks Florida) – except perhaps Raymond’s $2.5mil hit or how the term of Luongo’s contract handcuffs the team at the goaltender position which we will discuss.

Vancouver’s team is a Stanley Cup contender and should be as long as the Sedins and Kesler remain elite players.  Fortunately, the Sedins are sewn up for two more years after this one and Kesler has another four. 

The players who sign here know what the ultimate goal is, winning a Stanley Cup. They all understand that signing cap-friendly contracts helps accomplish this goal.  Whether Vancouver has found the most altruistic group of players in the league or if the pressure within the room makes guys want to sign for less is debatable, but the fact remains every player Mike Gillis has signed, has done so at a price well below market value. 

The only three players that have wanted fair market value, Mattias Ohlund, Willie Mitchell and Christian Ehrhoff, have found out the money may be greener but the grass sure isn’t after signing deals with Tampa, Los Angeles and Buffalo respectively.

Many General Managers around the league seem to forget that every contract they negotiate has an impact on the next deal they have to sign.

The terms for Grabovski and Hemsky illustrates the importance of the Canuck’s bargain signings.  Edmonton has a raft of young, talented forwards coming up for new contracts in the next couple of years. Now the starting point for negotiations is going to be Hemsky’s deal.  Already saddled with Shawn Horcoff’s terrible deal at $5.5mil/year, the Oilers may have been able to convince their young studs that his deal was a mistake but when backed up by Hemsky’s $5mil/year, Edmonton has set the bar for future negotiations. 

If Hemsky’s 29 points in 53 games is worth $5mil/year, what’s Gagner’s 42 points in 59 games worth?  Then comes Eberle the next year and Hall the year after. It’ll be tough to convince them to take a discount when they see how much an average offensive player is worth to the Oilers. 

In Toronto, the list of ridiculous contracts is endless, Kessel $5.4mil, Phaneuf $6.5mil, Connelly $4.75, Lombardi, $3.5, Komisarek $4.5mil, Lombardi, Schenn, McArthur, Lilles and Armstrong all over $3mil.  Under this salary structure Chris Higgins would have been worth at least $3mil last summer.

Burke may not have negotiated all these contracts but he’s responsible for all of these players being in Toronto, so when a slightly above average talent like Grabovski wants $5.5mil he need only look within his dressing room for multiple examples of why he’s worth at least that much. 

This is what makes Gillis’ accomplishment so impressive.  It’s not just signing these players to bargain deals; it’s knowing to walk away if they do not sign.  Ohlund, Mitchell and Ehrhoff wanted more money than what the Canucks had budgeted for these positions.  Instead of giving in to the players and setting a precedent that would have hindered his ability to negotiate future deals, he walked away. 

Just as impressively, he outlined to his superstars his vision for the future of the team and got them to buy in to the program.  Gillis was willing to walk away from the Sedins if they didn't accept a deal for a cap number that would help the team accomplish their goal, keeping salaries reasonably low.

Even if you look at the two contracts he negotiated that are a little off, Raymond and Luongo, at the time they both looked like bargains. 

Raymond was a 24-year-old restricted free-agent coming off an impressive 3^rd year, scoring 25 goals and 53 points.  Although that might have gotten him $4mil from Burke or Lowe, Gillis convinced him to sign for a then reasonable $2.5mil. 

Luongo’s signing came at a time when the Canucks were still trying to establish themselves as an elite team and Gillis needed to sign him to prove Vancouver was serious about being a top contender.  You can certainly argue about the term of the contract but the signing went a huge factor in convincing the rest of the core Vancouver was serious about competing and his $5.3mil hit was a bargain considering Luongo was arguably one of the three best goalies in the world when he signed.

Burke and Tambellini will both claim they couldn’t find replacements in the free-agent pool equal to the players they just signed, or if they could they would have cost much more.  This may be true but the problem lies with the effect these contracts have on future signings. 

Neither team is winning a Stanley Cup in the next couple of years.  Both GM’s could have followed the Gillis blueprint, outlining the team’s plan for the future, showing how each player fits into the plan and at what cost.  If the players wanted in, great, sign them to reasonable contracts, if not, trade them at the deadline for players that fit the plan.  That is if you have a plan.

Burke’s plan seems to be signing any decent body no matter the cost or the long-term repercussions. Unless he truly believes Grabovski is a top two centre on a Stanley Cup winner, this deal is crazy.

Tambellini’s signing of Hemsky makes even less sense when you consider Hemsky’s recent rate of production and how this signing may make retaining his other young stars even more difficult.   

Sometimes the best deal you make is the one you don’t.  Fortunately for Canuck fans Mike Gillis already knows this and just as fortunately many of the other GM’s don’t.